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December 5, 2016

JOBS REPORT SHOWS UNEMPLOYMENT AT 4.6%

America’s jobless rate fell to a nine-year low in November as companies added 178,000 net new jobs. The U-6 rate (including the underemployed decreased) 0.2% to 9.3%. There were some negatives: yearly wage growth moderated to 2.5%, and the labor force participation rate ticked down to 62.7%, in part because of baby boomer retirements.1

    

STRONG CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, SPENDING, GDP

As November ended, the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index rose 6.3 points to a mark of 107.1. In October, personal spending increased 0.3%, according to the Census Bureau, with personal incomes up 0.6%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised third quarter growth upward by 0.3% to 3.2% last week.2

   

PENDING HOME SALES, HOME PRICES SEE GAINS

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed a 5.5% annualized gain in its September edition, improved from 5.2% in August. Housing contract activity rose another 0.1% in October, according to the National Association of Realtors.2

  

MANUFACTURING INDEX IMPROVES

The Institute for Supply Management’s November purchasing manager index for the factory sector rose 1.3 points to 53.2, indicating another month of expansion. Analysts polled by MarketWatch had projected a reading of 52.5.2

OIL PRICES SKYROCKET; S&P 500 DECLINES

News of OPEC’s oncoming production cut drove WTI crude to its best week since January 2009. Futures settled Friday at $51.68 on the NYMEX, up 12.2% in five days (including a Thursday-Friday leap of almost 13%). Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced among key Wall Street indices last week, rising 0.10% to 19,170.42. The S&P 500 dipped 0.97% on the week to 2,191.95; the Nasdaq Composite, 2.65% to 5,255.65; and the Russell 2000, 2.45% to 1,314.25.3,4

      

THIS WEEK: November’s ISM non-manufacturing PMI appears Monday. Earnings from Analogic, AutoZone, Bob Evans Farms, Dave & Buster’s, Michaels Stores, and Toll Brothers arrive Tuesday, plus a report on October factory orders. Wednesday’s earnings parade includes results from Casey’s General Stores, Costco, H&R Block, and Lululemon Athletica. A new initial jobless claims report comes out on Thursday, along with earnings from Broadcom, Dell, Hovnanian, and Toro. Friday brings the initial December consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan.

  

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+10.02

+8.13

+11.90

+5.72

NASDAQ

+4.96

+2.58

+20.01

+11.78

S&P 500

+7.24

+5.41

+15.23

+5.69

REAL YIELD

12/2 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.49%

0.62%

0.00%

2.10%

 


Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 12/2/164,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


Sincerely,


The Advisors at Sound Financial Strategies Group

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The opinions voiced in this article are for general information only. They are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual and do not constitute an endorsement by CAMAS.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
  

Citations.

1 - businessinsider.com/us-jobs-report-november-2016-2016-12 [12/2/16]

2 - marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [12/2/16]

3 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-edge-lower-as-investors-assess-what-opec-oil-deal-can-deliver-2016-12-02/ [12/2/16]

4 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/2/16]

5-bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F2%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5-bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F2%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5-bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F2%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5-bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F2%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5-bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F2%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5-bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F2%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5-bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F1%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5-bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F1%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

5-bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F1%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/2/16]

6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/2/16]

7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/2/16]

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