The 2024 Presidential Election and the US Stock Market: September 2024

At Sound Financial, we often get this question– how will the elections affect the markets? Or how will the markets change if Former President Trump is elected or V.P. Harris is elected?

First, we don’t know, nor does anyone else. But we have history and facts that may point us in the right direction.

The 2016 markets thought for sure that Senate Clinton would defeat Mr. Trump. It seemed that markets had priced in a certain Clinton victory – which goes to show you that no one, not the best “experts can predict elections or markets.” On the night of the election, as the exit polls began to be made public, the overnight markets began selling off. The US future markets sold off 5% with 17 times the typical trading volume. Yet, the next morning the US stock markets began a 34% run that was eventually called the Trump Bump.

So, which is better for the markets, Democrat or Republican?

What do the facts tell us?

1. In an election year the US stock market is positive 83% of the time – going back to Franklin Roosevelt’s term.
   1. And when a Republican president wins, the stock markets have gained 15%
   2. When a Democrat wins markets are up 7.6%.
   3. Source: First Trust
2. Overall, under which Party does the US stock market perform best?
   12. Democrat Presidents – the S&P 500’s median annual return is 12.9%.
   13. Republican Presidents – the S&P 500’s median annual return is 9.9%.
   14. Source: The White House Historical Association, Y Charts
3. What happens if we look at complete presidential tenures – the compounding annual growth rate of a President’s entire presidency – which party does better?
   9. Democrat Presidents average a 9.3% return over their tenure.
   10. Republican Presidents average a 10.2% return over their tenure.
   11. Source: The White House Historical Association, Y Charts

So, if you are keeping score…we don’t recommend that you do that; as Mark Twain said, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” We are not recommending investment decisions based on market statistics regarding the US Presidency.

Besides, the US President probably gets more credit and blame for the economy than they historically deserve. It is the nature of their job. As for your investments, we have a rules-based investment system that we run to fit your financial plans which are based on your goals.

For more information regarding how these five rules might help you – let’s talk; email me at cmcalpin@soundfsg.com or call us at 601-856-3825.